Venezuela: Guri Dam Drops to Lowest Level

Explosión del transformador de 400 kV de Planta Centro el día 6 de Mayo de 2010

May 7, 2010

Summary

The water level of Venezuela’s Guri dam is at the lowest since the electricity crisis began, and the country’s thermoelectric sector is in no shape to handle the extra load, resulting in blackouts in the western states. The country is scrambling to fix its infrastructure, but corruption and money woes are obstructing these crucial repairs.

Analysis

Venezuela’s Electricity Crisis

According to May 6 data published by Venezuelan state power agency Operation of Interconnected Systems (OPSIS), the water level of Venezuela’s Guri dam has dropped to its lowest point — 248.22 meters above sea level — since the onset of the country’s electricity crisis. This figure is dangerously close to 240 meters (308.64 yards) above sea level, the point at which the bulk of the dam’s turbines would have to be shut down, depriving Venezuela of its primary electricity source and raising the political stakes for President Hugo Chavez.

Venezuelan officials were breathing sighs of relief in mid-April when rainfall in the countryside showed signs of easing the crisis by keeping the Guri dam at a manageable water level. However, since April 21, the water level of the dam resumed its descent, dropping roughly 76 centimeters in the past two weeks. May is the traditional start to the rainy season in Venezuela, but the effects of El Nino could prolong the current drought. Forecasts for the week ahead in Bolivar state, where the Guri dam is located, show sporadic rainfall, but nothing yet that would indicate Venezuela will receive the heavy showers it needs to contain this crisis in the near term.

As the water level of the Guri reservoir continues to drop, the water pressure of the dam decreases and the turbines have to work harder to spin and generate electricity. The combination of these factors can produce a water vortex, in which water bubbles get sucked in and move up to the turbine blades, where they eat away at the metal of the blades. This process, called cavitation, can then produce massive vibrations that can be felt throughout the plant. If the turbine is not shut down quickly enough,an explosion could occur, risking a complete shutdown of the dam.

Signs of this cavitation effect already appear to be surfacing. According to Venezuelan Electricity Minister Ali Rodriguez Araque, Unit 8 of the Guri dam, located in the first powerhouse of the dam, has been paralyzed after experiencing “strong vibrations,” taking 400 megawatts out of commission. The strong vibrations indicate likely damage to the metal turbine blades caused by water bubbles.

Venezuela in 2006 hired a Brazilian-German-Venezuelan consortium called Eurobras to upgrade the Guri dam with larger, more hydrodynamic turbines that are more efficient and more resistant to cavitation. Most of these upgrades have been made to units in the second powerhouse of the dam. Unit 8, now out of commission, had not yet been upgraded, but Brazilian engineers have been working on upgrading two other critical units — 9 and 12 — to raise the dam’s output.

Rumors are circulating, however, that the Brazilian contract workers are not being paid and have threatened to abandon their work by next week unless they receive their paychecks from state-owned power company EDELCA. Their departure would put Venezuela in a serious bind because the technical modifications being made to units 9 and 12 are believed to be too advanced for Venezuelan engineers to either complete themselves or replace the units
with the older, less efficient turbines. In other words, leaving the job halfway done would have a crippling effect on the dam’s output. Eurobras workers also are reportedly threatening to leave their work at the Fabricio Ojeda dam in western Merida state over similar salary complaints. This issue likely came up during Chavez’s April 28 meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, but it appears the payment dispute has not yet been resolved.

Corruption in the Venezuelan electricity sector runs high, and many within the industry have expressed concern over how the corruption factor has impacted engineers’ ability to repair the electricity infrastructure in time to avoid a crisis. Many of the invoices for electricity equipment are believed to be highly inflated, which allows the government officials placing the orders to keep a substantial portion of the payments off the books and in their pockets. This corruption-cycle not only exacerbates inflation but also results in a mismatch between the equipment ordered and the specifications of the power plants. Sources in the electricity sector claim the officials placing the orders failed to consult the appropriate engineers. As a result, much of the purchased electricity equipment is believed to be unusable and collecting dust in warehouses.

But cavitation and corruption may not be the only issues plaguing the electricity sector. The military presence at Venezuela’s critical power plants has reportedly increased in the past several days as the situation has turned more critical. STRATFOR sources report engineers at these plants are also under heavy surveillance. As a result, some engineers are reportedly anonymously using the social media network Twitter to disseminate information on what is happening at the power plants. One unconfirmed Twitter report claims Cuban engineers working on Unit 8 of the Guri dam left a hatch open that produced a flood in the powerhouse. Water damage also could result in electrical damage that could impact the other units of the powerhouse. Though information is beginning to leak out on the status of the dam units through social media like Twitter, the reliability of this information remains debatable given the array of opposition forces in Venezuela that have an interest in exaggerating the crisis.

While the Guri dam continues to struggle, greater pressure is being put on Venezuela’s fragile thermoelectric sector, which also is badly in need of repair. As of May 6, Planta Centro, the country’s main thermoelectric plant, still had only one out of four units operational, with an output of 287 megawatts. On May 6, an explosion at a transformer was reported at Planta Centro, which engineers claim will take a minimum of 10 days to fix. Nearby thermoelectric plants also are struggling to make up for the Planta Centro shortfalls, resulting in extended blackouts in Carabobo, Merida, Tachira, Apure and Zulia states in western Venezuela.

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